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NEW YORK: After the worst year for global stocks in more than a decade, and a rout in bonds that’s unmatched this century, some investors aren’t prepared to take anything for granted in 2023.
While optimists are betting on central banks pivoting to interest rate cuts, along with China fully emerging from its Covid isolation and conflict in Europe abating, others are on the lookout for risks that may throw markets back into turmoil.
“The bond market expects inflation to neatly return to zone in 12 months,” said Matthew McLennan, co-head of First Eagle Investment Management’s global value team.
But that may be a big mistake.
There is a real risk that wage growth and supply-side pressures like elevated energy costs keep fuelling consumer price gains, he said.
This would rule out the pivot to cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank that markets see coming in the middle of the year.
The flow-on impact is stocks and bonds falling further, US dollar strength, and more pain in emerging markets (EMs).
Then there’s the question of higher borrowing costs triggering a recession and how that plays out for investors, according to McLennan.,
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“The Fed didn’t see inflation coming, and in its quest to fight inflation, it may not see a financial accident coming,” he said.
“It’s quite possible the Fed is underestimating the risk of financial catastrophe.”
Chinese stocks have jumped about 35% from their October nadir on the prospect of the world’s second-largest economy fully reopening after lengthy lockdowns.
The risk of the health system being overwhelmed as infections rise and economic activity collapses weighs on this optimism.
Crowded hospitals and funeral home lines have caused concern in recent weeks, and this has been accompanied by a drop in social mobility in major cities.
“China’s infection curve will rise and will only peak one or two months after Chinese New Year,” said Marcella Chow, global market strategist for JPMorgan Chase.
She expects the nation to succeed in reopening but still cautions of “risk in terms of how Covid evolves”.
The rebound in Chinese equities remains fragile, and any prospect of a stumble in economic activity would sap demand in commodity markets, particularly for industrial metals and iron ore.
“If the war worsened and if the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation became more directly involved in hostilities and sanctions ratcheted up, it would be quite negative,” said John Vail, chief global market strategist for Nikko Asset Management.,
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